The Talik

Interannual variation

Interannual variation

Interannual climate variations, including droughts, floods, and other events, are caused by a complex selection of factors and Earth system interactions. One important feature that plays a role in these variations is the periodic change of atmospheric and oceanic blood flow patterns into the tropical Pacific region, collectively known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation. Although its primary climatic effects are concentrated into the tropical Pacific, ENSO has cascading effects that often increase towards the Atlantic Ocean region, the interior of Europe and Asia, and the polar regions. These effects, called teleconnections, occur because alterations in low-latitude atmospheric blood flow patterns into the Pacific region influence atmospheric blood flow in adjacent and downstream systems. As a result, storm tracks are diverted and atmospheric pressure ridges (areas of high pressure) and troughs (areas of low pressure) are displaced from their usual patterns.

For instance, El Niño events occur whenever easterly trade winds into the tropical Pacific weaken or reverse path. This shuts down the upwelling of deep, cold waters off the west coast of South America, warms the eastern Pacific, and reverses the atmospheric pressure gradient into the western Pacific. As a result, air at the surface moves eastward from Australia and Indonesia toward the central Pacific plus the Americas. These changes produce high rainfall and flash floods along the generally arid coast of Peru and severe drought in the generally wet elements of northern Australia and Indonesia. Specially severe El Niño events lead to monsoon failure into the Indian Ocean region, resulting in intense drought in India and East Africa. At the same time, the westerlies and storm tracks are displaced toward the Equator, providing California and also the desert Southwest of the usa with wet, stormy winter weather and causing winter conditions into the Pacific Northwest, which are typically wet, to become warmer and drier. Displacement of the westerlies also results in drought in northern China and from northeastern Brazil through sections of Venezuela. Long-term records of ENSO variation from historical documents, tree rings, and reef corals indicate that El Niño events occur, on average, every two to seven years. Nonetheless, the frequency and intensity of those events vary through time.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is another exemplory instance of an interannual oscillation that produces important climatic effects within the Earth system and that can influence climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This phenomenon results from variation into the pressure gradient, or the difference in atmospheric pressure involving the subtropical high, generally situated between the Azores and Gibraltar, as well as the Icelandic low, centred between Iceland and Greenland. Whenever pressure gradient is steep due to a strong subtropical high and a deep Icelandic low (positive phase), northern Europe and northern Asia experience warm, wet winters with frequent strong winter storms. At the same time, southern Europe is dry. The eastern usa also experiences warmer, less snowy winters during positive NAO phases, although the effect is not as great as in Europe. The pressure gradient is dampened when NAO is in a negative mode—that is, when a weaker pressure gradient exists from the presence of a weak subtropical high and Icelandic low. When this happens, the Mediterranean region receives abundant winter rainfall, while northern Europe is cold and dry. The eastern usa is typically colder and snowier during a negative NAO phase.

During years whenever North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in its positive phase, the eastern usa, southeastern Canada, and northwestern Europe experience warmer winter temperatures, whereas colder temperatures are found in these locations during its negative phase. Whenever El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NAO are both in their positive phase, European winters are usually wetter and less severe; nonetheless, beyond this general tendency, the influence of the ENSO upon the NAO just isn’t well understood.Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

The ENSO and NAO cycles are driven by feedbacks and interactions involving the oceans and atmosphere. Interannual climate variation is driven by these and other cycles, interactions among cycles, and perturbations into the Earth system, such as those resulting from large injections of aerosols from volcanic eruptions. One example of a perturbation due to volcanism is the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo into the Philippines, which led to a decrease in the average global temperature of approximately 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) the following summer.

Decadal variation

Climate varies on decadal timescales, with multiyear clusters of wet, dry, cool, or warm conditions. These multiyear clusters can have dramatic effects on human being activities and welfare. By way of example, a severe three-year drought in the late 16th century probably contributed towards the destruction of Sir Walter Raleigh’s ‘Lost Colony’ at Roanoke Island in what happens to be North Carolina, and a subsequent seven-year drought (1606–12) led to high mortality at the Jamestown Colony in Virginia. Also, some scholars have implicated persistent and severe droughts while the main reason for the collapse of the Maya civilization in Mesoamerica between AD 750 and 950; nonetheless, discoveries in the early 21st century suggest that war-related trade disruptions played a role, possibly getting together with famines and other drought-related stresses.

Although decadal-scale climate variation is well documented, the causes are not entirely clear. Much decadal variation in climate is related to interannual variations. For example, the frequency and magnitude of ENSO change through time. The early 1990s were characterized by repeated El Niño events, and several such clusters were identified as having taken place during the 20th century. The steepness of the NAO gradient also changes at decadal timescales; it is often specially steep since the 1970s.

Recent research has revealed that decadal-scale variations in climate result from interactions involving the ocean and the atmosphere. One such variation is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), also referred to as the Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), which involves changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) into the North Pacific Ocean. The influence that is SSTs strength and position of the Aleutian Low, which in turn strongly affects precipitation patterns along the Pacific Coast of North America. PDO variation is comprised of an alternation between ‘cool-phase’ periods, when coastal Alaska is relatively dry and the Pacific Northwest relatively wet ( e.g., 1947–76), and ‘warm-phase’ periods, seen as an relatively high precipitation in coastal Alaska and low precipitation into the Pacific Northwest ( e.g., 1925–46, 1977–98). Tree ring and coral records, which span at least the final four centuries, document PDO variation.

A similar oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), takes place into the North example of topic outline about climate change Atlantic and strongly influences precipitation patterns in eastern and central North America. a warm-phase amo (relatively warm North Atlantic SSTs) is connected with relatively high rainfall in Florida and low rainfall in much of the Ohio Valley. Nonetheless, the AMO interacts utilizing the PDO, and both interact with interannual variations, such as for example ENSO and NAO, in complex methods . Such interactions may lead to the amplification of droughts, floods, or other climatic anomalies. For example, severe droughts over much of the conterminous usa in the first few years of the 21st century were connected with warm-phase AMO combined with cool-phase PDO. The mechanisms underlying decadal variations, such as PDO and AMO, are poorly comprehended, but they are probably related to ocean-atmosphere interactions with larger time constants than interannual variations. Decadal climatic variations are the subject of intense study by climatologists and paleoclimatologists.

Climate Change Since The Emergence Of Civilization

Human being societies have experienced climate change since the development of agriculture some 10,000 years ago. These climate changes have often had profound effects on human being cultures and societies. They include annual and decadal climate fluctuations such as those described above, as well as large-magnitude changes that occur over centennial to multimillennial timescales. Such changes are believed to have influenced and even stimulated the initial cultivation and domestication of crop plants, as well as the domestication and pastoralization of animals. Human being societies have changed adaptively in response to climate variations, although evidence abounds that certain societies and civilizations have collapsed in the face of rapid and severe climatic changes.

BRITANNICA QUIZ Climate Change: Fact or Fiction? The Arctic is warming twice as fast while the rest of the world.

Centennial-scale variation

Historical records as well as proxy records (particularly tree rings, corals, and ice cores) indicate that climate has changed during the past 1,000 years at centennial timescales; that is, no two centuries have already been exactly alike. During the past 150 years, the Earth system has emerged from a period called the Little Ice Age, which was characterized into the North Atlantic region and elsewhere by relatively cool temperatures. The 20th century in particular saw a substantial pattern of warming in several regions. A number of this warming may be attributable to the transition from the Little Ice Age or other natural causes. Nonetheless, many climate researchers believe that much of the 20th-century warming, especially in the later decades, resulted from atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide, CO2).

The Little Ice Age is most beneficial known in Europe and the North Atlantic region, which experienced relatively cool conditions involving the early 14th and mid-19th centuries. This was not just a period of uniformly cool climate, since interannual and decadal variability brought many warm years. Also, the coldest periods failed to always coincide among regions; some regions experienced relatively warm conditions at the same time others were subjected to severely cold conditions. Alpine glaciers advanced far below their previous (and present) limits, obliterating farms, churches, and villages in Switzerland, France, and elsewhere. Frequent cold winters and cool, wet summers ruined wine harvests and led to crop failures and famines over much of northern and central Europe. The North Atlantic cod fisheries declined as ocean temperatures fell into the 17th century. The Norse colonies regarding the coast of Greenland were cut off from the rest of Norse civilization during the early 15th century as pack ice and storminess increased into the North Atlantic. The western colony of Greenland collapsed through starvation, and the eastern colony was abandoned. In addition, Iceland became increasingly isolated from Scandinavia.

The Little Ice Age was preceded by way of a period of relatively mild conditions in northern and central Europe. This interval, known as the Medieval Warm Period, occurred from around AD 1000 towards the first 50 % of the 13th century. Mild summers and winters led to good harvests in much of Europe. Wheat cultivation and vineyards flourished at far higher latitudes and elevations than today. Norse colonies in Iceland and Greenland prospered, and Norse parties fished, hunted, and explored the coast of Labrador and Newfoundland. The Medieval Warm Period is well documented in much of the North Atlantic region, including ice cores from Greenland. Like the Little Ice Age, this time was neither a climatically uniform period nor a period of uniformly warm temperatures everywhere in the world. Other elements of the globe lack evidence for high temperatures during this period.

Much scientific attention continues becoming devoted to a series of severe droughts that occurred involving the 11th and 14th centuries. These droughts, each spanning several decades, are well documented in tree-ring records across western North America and in the peatland records of the Great Lakes region. The records seem to be linked to ocean temperature anomalies into the Pacific and Atlantic basins, but they are however inadequately comprehended. The information suggests that much of the United States is susceptible to persistent droughts that is devastating for water resources and agriculture.

Millennial and multimillennial variation

The climatic changes of the past thousand years are superimposed upon variations and trends at both millennial timescales and greater. Numerous indicators from eastern North America and Europe show trends of increased cooling and increased effective moisture during the past 3,000 years. For example, in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence regions along the U.S.-Canadian border, water quantities of the lakes rose, peatlands developed and expanded, moisture-loving trees such as for example beech and hemlock expanded their ranges westward, and populations of boreal trees, such as for example spruce and tamarack, increased and expanded southward. These patterns all indicate a trend of increased effective moisture, that might indicate increased precipitation, decreased evapotranspiration due to cooling, or both. The patterns never necessarily indicate a monolithic cooling event; more complex climatic changes probably occurred. For example, beech expanded northward and spruce southward during the past 3,000 years in both eastern North America and western Europe. The beech expansions may indicate milder winters or longer growing seasons, whereas the spruce expansions appear linked to cooler, moister summers. Paleoclimatologists are applying a variety of approaches and proxies to greatly help identify such changes in seasonal temperature and moisture during the Holocene Epoch.

In the same way the Little Ice Age was not connected with cool conditions everywhere, so the cooling and moistening trend of the past 3,000 years was not universal. Some regions became warmer and drier during the same time period. As an example, northern Mexico and the Yucatan experienced decreasing moisture in the past 3,000 years. Heterogeneity with this type is characteristic of climatic change, which involves changing patterns of atmospheric blood flow. As blood flow patterns change, the transport of heat and moisture into the atmosphere also changes. This fact explains the apparent paradox of opposing temperature and moisture trends in different regions.

The trends of the past 3,000 years are only the newest in a variety of climatic changes that occurred over the past 11,700 years or so—the interglacial period referred to because the Holocene Epoch. At the start of the Holocene, remnants of continental glaciers from the last glaciation still covered much of eastern and central Canada and elements of Scandinavia. These ice sheets largely disappeared by 6,000 years ago. Their absence— along with increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels (as glacial meltwater flowed into the world’s oceans), and especially changes in the radiation budget of Earth’s surface owing to Milankovitch variations ( changes in the seasons resulting from periodic alterations of Earth’s orbit round the Sun)—affected atmospheric blood flow. The diverse changes of the past 10,000 years across the globe are difficult to summarize in capsule, but some general highlights and large-scale patterns are worthy of note. These include the clear presence of early to mid-Holocene thermal maxima in various locations, variation in ENSO patterns, and an early to mid-Holocene amplification of the Indian Ocean monsoon.

Thermal maxima

Many elements of the globe experienced higher temperatures than today some time during the early to mid-Holocene. In many cases the increased temperatures were accompanied by decreased moisture availability. Although the thermal maximum has been regarded in North America and elsewhere as being a single widespread event (variously named the ‘Altithermal,’ ‘Xerothermic Interval,’ ‘Climatic Optimum,’ or ‘Thermal Optimum’), it is now recognized that the periods of maximum temperatures varied among regions. For example, northwestern Canada experienced its highest temperatures several thousand years earlier than central or eastern North America. Similar heterogeneity is seen in moisture records. By way of example, the record of the prairie-forest boundary into the Midwestern region of this usa shows eastward expansion of prairie in Iowa and Illinois 6,000 years ago (indicating increasingly dry conditions), whereas Minnesota’s forests expanded westward into prairie regions at the same time (indicating increasing moisture). The Atacama Desert, found primarily in present-day Chile and Bolivia, regarding the western as you like it 2.7 summary side of South America, is amongst the driest places on Earth today, but it was much wetter during the early Holocene when a number of other regions were at their driest.

The primary driver of changes in temperature and moisture during the Holocene was orbital variation, which slowly changed the latitudinal and seasonal distribution of solar radiation on Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Nonetheless, the heterogeneity of those changes was caused by changing patterns of atmospheric blood flow and ocean currents.

ENSO variation into the Holocene

Because of the global importance of ENSO variation today, Holocene variation in ENSO patterns and intensity is under serious study by paleoclimatologists. The record is still fragmentary, but evidence from fossil corals, tree rings, lake records, climate modeling, and other approaches is accumulating that (1) ENSO variation was relatively weak into the early Holocene, (2) ENSO has undergone centennial to millennial variations in strength during the past 11,700 years, and (3) ENSO patterns and strength just like those currently in place developed within the past 5,000 years. This evidence is specially clear when researching ENSO variation over the past 3,000 years to today’s patterns. The causes of long-term ENSO variation are being explored, but changes in solar radiation owing to Milankovitch variations are strongly implicated by modeling studies.

Amplification of the Indian Ocean monsoon

Much of Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent are under the strong influence of an annual climatic cycle known as the Indian Ocean monsoon. The climate with this region is highly seasonal, alternating between clear skies with dry air (winter) and cloudy skies with abundant rainfall (summer). Monsoon intensity, like other areas of climate, is subject to interannual, decadal, and centennial variations, at least a number of which are linked to ENSO and other cycles. Abundant evidence exists for large variations in monsoon intensity during the Holocene Epoch. Paleontological and paleoecological studies also show that large portions associated with region experienced much greater precipitation during the early Holocene (11,700–6,000 years ago) than today. Lake and wetland sediments dating to this period have already been found under the sands of the Sahara Desert. These sediments contain fossils of elephants, crocodiles, hippopotamuses, and giraffes, together with pollen evidence of forest and woodland vegetation. In arid and semiarid elements of Africa, Arabia, and India, large and deep freshwater lakes occurred in basins which can be now dry or are occupied by shallow, saline lakes. Civilizations centered on plant cultivation and grazing animals, including the Harappan civilization of northwestern India and adjacent Pakistan, flourished in these regions, which have since become arid.

These and similar lines of evidence, together with paleontological and geochemical data from marine sediments and climate-modeling studies, indicate that the Indian Ocean monsoon was greatly amplified during the early Holocene, supplying abundant moisture far inland into the African and Asian continents. This amplification was driven by high solar radiation in summer, which was around 7 percent higher 11,700 years ago than today and resulted from orbital forcing ( changes in Earth’s eccentricity, precession, and axial tilt). High summer insolation resulted in warmer summer air temperatures and lower surface pressure over continental regions and, hence, increased inflow of moisture-laden air from the Indian Ocean towards the continental interiors. Modeling studies indicate that the monsoonal flow was further amplified by feedbacks involving the atmosphere, vegetation, and soils. Increased moisture led to wetter soils and lusher vegetation, which in turn led to increased precipitation and greater penetration of moist air into continental interiors. Decreasing summer insolation during the past 4,000–6,000 years led to the weakening of the Indian Ocean monsoon.

Climate Change Since The Advent Of Humans

Examine glacial scratches on rocks from Switzerland to New York City for evidence of Earth’s icy pastEvidence of Earth’s glacial past.Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.See all videos for this article

The annals of humanity—from the initial appearance of genus Homo over 2,000,000 years ago to the arrival and expansion of the modern individual species (Homo sapiens) beginning some 150,000 years ago—is integrally linked to climate variation and change. Homo sapiens has experienced nearly two full glacial-interglacial cycles, but its global geographical expansion, massive population increase, cultural diversification, and worldwide ecological domination began only during the last glacial period and accelerated during the last glacial-interglacial transition. The first bipedal apes appeared in a time of climatic transition and variation, and Homo erectus, an extinct species possibly ancestral to modern humans, originated during the colder Pleistocene Epoch and survived both the transition period and multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. Thus, it can be said that climate variation was the midwife of humanity as well as its various cultures and civilizations.

Recent glacial and interglacial periods

The most recent glacial phase

With glacial ice restricted to high latitudes and altitudes, Earth 125,000 years ago was in an interglacial period similar to the one occurring today. During the past 125,000 years, nonetheless, the Earth system went through an entire glacial-interglacial cycle, only the most recent of many taking place throughout the last million years. More recent period of cooling and glaciation began approximately 120,000 years ago. Significant ice sheets developed and persisted over much of Canada and northern Eurasia.

After the initial development of glacial conditions, the Earth system alternated between two modes, one of cold temperatures and growing glaciers and the other of relatively warm temperatures (although much cooler than today) and retreating glaciers. These Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles, recorded in both ice cores and marine sediments, occurred around every 1,500 years. a lower-frequency cycle, called the Bond cycle, is superimposed regarding the pattern of DO cycles; Bond cycles occurred every 3,000–8,000 years. Each Bond cycle is seen as an unusually cold conditions that take place during the cold phase of a DO cycle, the subsequent Heinrich event ( and that is a brief dry and cold phase), and the rapid warming phase that follows each Heinrich event. During each Heinrich event, massive fleets of icebergs were released into the North Atlantic, carrying rocks acquired by the glaciers far out to sea. Heinrich events are marked in marine sediments by conspicuous layers of iceberg-transported rock fragments.

Most transitions in the DO and Bond cycles were rapid and abrupt, and they’re being studied intensely by paleoclimatologists and Earth system researchers to understand the driving mechanisms of such dramatic climatic variations. These cycles now appear to result from interactions involving the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, and continental rivers that influence thermohaline circulation (the pattern of ocean currents driven by differences in water density, salinity, and temperature, in place of wind). Thermohaline circulation, in turn, controls ocean heat transport, including the Gulf Stream.

The Last Glacial Maximum

During the past 25,000 years, the Earth system has undergone a series of dramatic transitions. The most recent glacial period peaked 21,500 years ago during the Last Glacial Maximum, or LGM. During those times, the northern third of North America was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which extended as far south as Des Moines, Iowa; Cincinnati, Ohio; and New York City. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet covered much of western Canada in addition to northern Washington, Idaho, and Montana in america. In Europe the Scandinavian Ice Sheet sat atop the British Isles, Scandinavia, northeastern Europe, and north-central Siberia. Montane glaciers were extensive in other regions, even at low latitudes in Africa and South America. Global sea level was 125 metres ( 410 feet) below modern levels, because of the long-term net transfer of water from the oceans towards the ice sheets. Temperatures near Earth’s surface in unglaciated regions were about 5 °C (9 °F) cooler than today. Many Northern Hemisphere plant and animal species inhabited areas far south of their present ranges. For example, jack pine and white spruce trees grew in northwestern Georgia, 1,000 km (600 miles) south of their modern range limits into the Great Lakes region of North America.

The last deglaciation

The continental ice sheets begun to melt back about 20,000 years ago. Drilling and dating of submerged fossil coral reefs provide a clear record of increasing sea levels while the ice melted. More rapid melting began 15,000 years ago. For example, the southern boundary of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America was north associated with Great Lakes and St. Lawrence regions by 10,000 years ago, also it had completely disappeared by 6,000 years ago.

The warming trend was punctuated by transient cooling events, most notably the Younger Dryas climate interval of 12,800–11,600 years ago. The climatic regimes that developed during the deglaciation period in several areas, including much of North America, don’t have any modern analog (i.e., no regions exist with comparable seasonal regimes of temperature and moisture). For example, into the interior of North America, climates were more continental (that is, seen as an warm summers and cold winters) than they are today. Also, paleontological studies indicate assemblages of plant, insect, and vertebrate species that do not occur anywhere today. Spruce trees grew with temperate hardwoods (ash, hornbeam, oak, and elm) into the upper Mississippi River and Ohio River regions. In Alaska, birch and poplar grew in woodlands, and there were hardly any of the spruce trees that dominate the present-day Alaskan landscape. Boreal and temperate mammals, whose geographic ranges are widely separated today, coexisted in central North America and Russia during this period of deglaciation. These unparalleled climatic conditions probably resulted from the combination of a unique orbital pattern that increased summer insolation and paid off cold weather insolation in the Northern Hemisphere and also the continued presence of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, which themselves altered atmospheric blood flow patterns.

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